New york flood 20208/24/2023 Here, we quantify the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on future flood hazards in Jamaica Bay. Recent studies found that ETC climatology change and its impact on future storm surges in the New York region would not be significant (Roberts et al. Climate change is expected to impact flood hazards, yet the compound impacts of sea level rise (SLR) and storm climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay are not fully understood. Storm surges induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) result in devastating flood events in this region, as best exemplified by historical TCs such as Hurricane Donna in 1960 and Sandy in 2012 and ETCs such as the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 and the December 1992 event (Catalano and Broccoli 2018 Catalano et al. In addition, SLR leads to larger surface waves induced by TCs in the bay, suggesting a potential increase in hazards associated with wave runup, erosion, and damage to coastal infrastructure.Ĭoastal areas surrounding Jamaica Bay, which are home to hundreds of thousands of New York residences, are highly susceptible to coastal flooding. Due to the SLR projected with a 5% exceedance probability, 125- and 1300-year flood events in the late-twentieth century would become 74- and 515-year flood events, respectively, in the late-twenty-first century, and the spatial extent of flooding over coastal floodplains of Jamaica Bay would increase by nearly 10 and 4 times, respectively. We further conduct high-resolution coastal flood simulations for a series of SLR and TC scenarios. However, TC climatology change would considerably contribute to the future increase in low-probability, high-consequence flood levels (with a return period greater than 100 year), likely due to an increase in the probability of occurrence of slow-moving but intense TCs by the end of twenty-first century. These increases are mainly induced by SLR. We find a substantial increase in the future flood hazards, e.g., the historical 100-year flood level would become a 9- and 1-year flood level in the mid- and late-twenty-first century and the 500-year flood level would become a 143- and 4-year flood level. Flood return periods are estimated based on probabilistic projections of SLR and peak storm tides simulated by a hydrodynamic model for large numbers of synthetic TCs. This study estimates the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay from a historical period in the late twentieth century (1980–2000) to future periods in the mid- and late-twenty-first century (2030–20–2100, under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario). Sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) climatology change could impact future flood hazards in Jamaica Bay-an urbanized back-barrier bay in New York-yet their compound impacts are not well understood.
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